From the "What its Worth Department"

By David W. Boitnott

Old back issues of numismatic magazines can be excellent sources of information on one's collecting interest or on the hobby in general. Magazines such as "The Numismatist" and "Numismatic Scrapbook Magazine" for which electronic indexes exist are highly sought after and used greatly for research. However, more commercial magazines such as "COINage" and "Coins" for which I am unaware of any existing electronic indexes are not. One should not let this deter them from collecting these back issues though. True it is more difficult to find what you're searching for in them. You'll do a lot of browsing and partially read many articles that turn out to be unrelated to your research. But admit it that is half the fun especially if you discover something interesting you were not even looking for!

A case in point. Recently, I purchase in auction a complete run of "COINage" magazines from volume 1 number 1 through the mid 1990's. They arrived in eight large boxes and my first thought was will I ever read all this? Well thanks to some rainy weather that prevented me from pursuing some outdoor activities I start leafing through them. Starting with volume 1 number 1, Winter 1964, I made my first unexpected discovery! Right there on the front cover in a banner headline above the magazine title was "How Much Will Your Kennedy Half-Dollars Be Worth?" I suspected with this written in the first year of issue for the Kennedy half-dollar that this might be a nice parallel to the statehood quarters now being issued. I was not disappointed!

Flipping to page 22 and reading what inside was titled "How Much Will The Kennedy Half-Dollars Be Worth?" and subtitled "Speculation on the coin question of the year," I found discussion about the scarcity of finding any in circulation. Based on the original announced mintage of 96 million from both mints (eventually some 435 million were produced) the author stated "it certainly seemed reasonable to assume that, even with that high supply, the coins would become scarce and, therefore a good investment. General public and collectors bought and saved." He went on to discuss how this would not hold true as the mintage passed 200 million. He further theorized on where all the coins were going and ended with the statement "That's speculation … and so is any talk of the eventual value of the historic Kennedy half dollar."

Sound like any discussions surrounding the current statehood quarter series now being produced? I think so and of course any talk of their future value would also just be speculation. But, with over 35 years of hindsight we can now answer the question posed in 1964 and perhaps learn a valuable lesson in the process. As stated in the article, the Kennedy half-dollar was already trading for $1.00 according to the 1965 "Red Book." Let's follow the "Red Book" price for an UNC piece over the decades by looking at every five years or so. In 1970 the price had jumped to a whopping $1.25, in 1975 a surprising $3.00, and by 1980 a whole 50 cent more at $.3.50. We should deviate from the five-year plan briefly to capture the effects of the Hunt brothers' attempt to corner the silver market in 1980. The 1981 "Red Book" puts the price of the same UNC half at $16.00 obviously the window of opportunity to really profit at this level was short because as the Hunt's bubble burst the price of silver coins dropped like a rock back to their numismatic levels. By 1982 the price was back down to $7.00. It should also be noted that starting in the 1980's the price quoted was for MS-65 specimens or the cream of the crop. Lesser-graded coin's prices were supported by their silver content typically trading at some multiple of face depending on the spot price of silver. Moving forward we find that the $7.00 price remained through 1985 and 1990 making one wonder if it was being updated. But, by 1995 the price was down to $3.25 or less than it was 15 years earlier. The value had recovered somewhat by the 2000 "Red Book" at $4.00.

So, what have we learned? Can we agree that high mintage coins with high survival rates are not good candidates for long term investment? Yes, speculation does sometimes pay off but your timing is critical. In 1965, if one could obtain coins for face and sell them for two times face then good profits could be made. If you held in 1965 your next golden opportunity would have been in 1980 when big profits could have been yours. If you waited to long hoping to catch the peak you easily could have missed out then. So, where are we now in 2000? If you didn't or couldn't save a 1964 Kennedy half when they first came out you can catch-up now for a mere $4. If you did save them and you want to cash in, well you might get half of that!

O.K., what does all this have to do with the current statehood quarters? I don't know its pure speculation! But, what I do know is that history has a way of repeating itself. Remember the 1964 Kennedy half did have the fact it was 90% silver to propel its price fluctuations and today only the best of the best command any real premiums. So, enjoy the new quarters. They are neat and interesting, save a couple of each from the two mints, but don't go overboard. Just some food for thought from the "What's It Worth Department!"